https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/01/will-la-nina-return-this-fall-the-tea-leaves-are-unusually-strong/
Chances are stronger than normal. Big implications especially for SW drought and tropical weather.

"If a La Niña event does materialize later this year, it would raise the odds of a wide range of impacts. These include reduced wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic, especially across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, that in turn would increase the chance of a busy Atlantic hurricane season. During the “three-peat” La Niña period from 2020 to 2022, the Atlantic spewed out 65 named storms, 28 hurricanes, 12 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy of 420.6, according to Colorado State University. Three years of average behavior (1991-2020) would have yielded 43.2, 21.6, 9.6, and 369.

In addition, the U.S. Sun Belt is more likely to experience drought and intense heat during La Niña. Some of the worst wildfires on record across California and the Southwest have occurred during La Niña events, particularly in 2020 and 2021 (see photo at top)."