Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

Last post
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8584
Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

Two sets of pendulums. One set is identical. The other has an imperceptible difference in starting conditions.

IMAGE(<a href="https://thumbs.gfycat.com/CourageousVictoriousAmericanshorthair-size_restricted.gif" rel="nofollow">https://thumbs.gfycat.com/CourageousVictoriousAmericanshorthair-size_restricted.gif</a>)

Quote:

Differential equations derived using Lagrangian mechanics in MATLAB's Symbolic Math Toolbox and solved numerically using ode45.
The lower segment of the blue pendulum on the right has an initial angle 0.001 radians (~0.057 degrees) greater than the same segment on the red pendulum.

For those not familiar with the weather connection (or chaos theory) - chaos theory describes systems where a very small change in the starting conditions result in very different outcomes unlike, say your car braking where the input and result is relatively linear. Weather forecasting confronts this and why you see Ensemble models and spaghetti plots for hurricanes for example. The various plots correspond to small changes in the initial conditions of the storm (sea surface temperature, wind shear, etc.)

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/7ve4i8/comparison_between_two_quadruple_pendulums_with/

0 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1810
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

I like the pendulum things ... but too many words after that. Shok
Seems pretty easy to me- 2 clicks and blamo!- forecast!

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8584
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.
FoilDood wrote:

I like the pendulum things ... but too many words after that. Shok
Seems pretty easy to me- 2 clicks and blamo!- forecast!

Better? Wink

1 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1810
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

The Butterfly Effect

0 Like
arrogantj's picture
arrogantj
Offline
Joined: 01/24/2012 - 14:11
Posts: 742
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.
FoilDood wrote:

The Butterfly Effect

Not sure how this helps my windsurfing but I'll give it a go. Biggrin

--- The Arrogant Jerk: Crabby and irritable since 1998.

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Online
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 3022
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

You guys do realize, don't you, that if the Higgs Boson decides to have a phase transition, the entire universe collapses down to the size of a little ball or something. So you are worrying about the wrong things. Forget about the butterflies that cause hurricanes.

https://phys.org/news/2013-12-collapse-universe-closer.html

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

0 Like
arrogantj's picture
arrogantj
Offline
Joined: 01/24/2012 - 14:11
Posts: 742
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.
Randy wrote:

You guys do realize, don't you, that if the Higgs Boson decides to have a phase transition, the entire universe collapses down to the size of a little ball or something. So you are worrying about the wrong things. Forget about the butterflies that cause hurricanes.

https://phys.org/news/2013-12-collapse-universe-closer.html

Shok

--- The Arrogant Jerk: Crabby and irritable since 1998.

1 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1810
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

If the world ends with a bang (vs whimper) I'd lay even odds on a Vogon construction crew making way for a hyperspace by-pass and some smartypants physicist monkeying around with one of them collider thingies... "Hey guys, what if we just take it up a notch?" Shok

0 Like
arrogantj's picture
arrogantj
Offline
Joined: 01/24/2012 - 14:11
Posts: 742
Re: Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

My vote: this guy hammers in a tent peg in the wrong spot causing his whole campground to go supervolcano on us

IMAGE(<a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f0/Yogi_Bear_Yogi_Bear.png/200px-Yogi_Bear_Yogi_Bear.png" rel="nofollow">https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f0/Yogi_Bear_Yogi_Bear.png/200px-Yogi_Bear_Yogi_Bear.png</a>)

--- The Arrogant Jerk: Crabby and irritable since 1998.

1 Like