Tropics 2020

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Tropics 2020

After being quiet for a few weeks, the Atlantic is firing up with Hannah in the Gulf and Gonzalo heading towards the Windwards. This will probably continue to be an active season as the water is warm and not a lot of shear.

Douglas in the Pacific is aimed at Maui. Currently a Cat 3 but expected to weaken to a TS by landfall.

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Re: Tropics 2020

So are you trying to cheer everyone up?

What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.

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Re: Tropics 2020
Randy wrote:

So are you trying to cheer everyone up?

Yes?

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Re: Tropics 2020

Timely. I'm pretty sure she was talking about foiling.

What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.

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Re: Tropics 2020

Unleash the sharpies. Likely Isaias, the earliest "I" storm ever.

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Re: Tropics 2020

The Discussion page shows how complex the forecasting is... art and science. Before satellites and radio connections to ships at sea, a falling barometer was it for forecasting. That was only, what, 100 yrs ago?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/290846.shtml

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Re: Tropics 2020
FoilDodo wrote:

The Discussion page shows how complex the forecasting is... art and science. Before satellites and radio connections to ships at sea, a falling barometer was it for forecasting. That was only, what, 100 yrs ago?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/290846.shtml

Covid has been a hot topic in the weather community. One big source of weather data has been the sheer number of planes aloft. With reduced air traffic, there's been a reduction in the number of data points that all the forecasting models depend on.

I think in the old days, you also had changes in ocean swells but your point remains. One day, it's sunny and mild and the next, your whole fleet of Spanish galleons and next year's treasury receipts are at the bottom of the Florida Straits.

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Re: Tropics 2020

I recall my dad talking about a hurricane he experienced as a boy (maybe 1930s) at the Chesapeake Bay. No warning. The weather just got bad, then worse, then a LOT worse. The eye moved over him and there was calm with perfect blue skies. Then bad again.

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Re: Tropics 2020

So is this a light at the end of the tunnel - or an oncoming train?

I recall once in about 6th grade standing in the driveway of the house we owned in South Dakota (moved to Indiana and couldn't sell it - went back to visit.) I looked around and a bunch strange debris swirling around just above the horizon and said "Hey what's that?" Suddenly it was like "TORNADO - RUN FOR THE BASEMENT". We ran around the back to the basement and my dad broke a window to get into the locked house. Apparently it wasn't much of a tornado, but at least now, I know what one looks like.

What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.

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Re: Tropics 2020

Jim Cantore at Wrightsville Beach, NC

Edit: Actually, the video was an old one of him. Thanks to Gene for the heads up. This was posted somewhere last night while talking about him being in NC and actually being close to the center for once in a long while.

Edit edit: here's the proper video

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Re: Tropics 2020

You know they shoot that in a studio, don't you. They use the same one where the moon landing was shot.

What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.

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Re: Tropics 2020
Randy wrote:

You know they shoot that in a studio, don't you. They use the same one where the moon landing was shot.

And what else have we learned from Facebook recently? Or, as my son puts it, if the first bit of evidence offered is a youtube video.... Lol

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Re: Tropics 2020

The Midwest ain't lettin' the tropics have all the fun. Today's derecho; these are straightline wind speeds.

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1292905379534438400

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Re: Tropics 2020
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Re: Tropics 2020

Those two areas of interest are further along. Cat 1-3 possible for FL assuming no interaction with Cuba or Hispanola. TD to Cat 1 for the Gulf

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/a-major-hurricane-could-hit-florida-monday-some-models-suggest/

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Re: Tropics 2020
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Re: Tropics 2020
FoilDodo wrote:

2020 Tango Wackohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

right you are... https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/tropical-storm-laura-and-tropical-depression-14-predicted-to-converge-in-gulf-of-mexico/

" Tropical Storm Laura and Tropical Depression 14 predicted to converge in Gulf of Mexico
The two storms may undergo a rare phenomenon known as the Fujiwara effect."

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Re: Tropics 2020

Marco and Laura

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Re: Tropics 2020

Maybe near enough for wind, far enough for less rain. Remember the epic Four Days of Faye? Good

edit: they moved the forecast track more to west. Bad news for New Orleans. Two hurricanes in a few days Sad

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Re: Tropics 2020
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Re: Tropics 2020
FoilDodo wrote:

Looking like a 4 now at landfall. Bad. Really bad.https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=GEOCOLOR&length=60

"unsurvivable storm surge" Sad

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