I'm sensing dots next week

Pages

34 posts / 0 new
Last post
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
I'm sensing dots next week

Just a hunch and maybe mixed with a bit of rain. But, I want to believe.

0 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1781
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Not seein’ it

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Look again (btw, did you forget to pay the lady?) Biggrin

1 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1781
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Oh here it is Shok
Wind 0, g 1

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week
FoilDood wrote:

Oh here it is Shok
Wind 0, g 1

I hate days like this with such a huge range between gusts and lulls (way over 100000%). What do you rig for - gusts or lulls? Anyway - no one tell Langdon about this - he'll be knocking old ladies off their Paddle Boards again with his wake.

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

1 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Perhaps I was misunderstood? I was speaking of next Tues/Wed. Unless your seer is capable of taking pictures of next Tues in which case ask her to focus on the Lottery numbers. Biggrin

hunch = a 90% chance I'm wrong but I'm hoping beyond hope

0 Like
TVAW
Online
Joined: 04/19/2016 - 18:03
Posts: 357
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I will not have the opportunity to tip SUPers this week so therefore the wind will blow probably starting around 10 on Monday and blow for at least 2 hours a day until my obligation ends... this prediction has been verified by my Magic 8 ball as well.

At a minimum there should be enough wind for Foildudes new Cat or perhaps a cruise with Gene's Laser.

0 Like
moredownhaul
Offline
Joined: 05/10/2007 - 07:28
Posts: 471
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Golf anyone?

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Dots anyone? Webguy must be getting inside info from NOAA.

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

0 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1781
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

hmmm. Odd nuance to the NWS modeling. I see dots if the point is set at g'ville but not if set at the lake. Is it just me? Shok
I'm planning for Wednesday afternoon. Gradient map looks pretty good.

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

IMAGE(<a href="https://media.giphy.com/media/7VRazDHwa38NW/giphy.gif" rel="nofollow">https://media.giphy.com/media/7VRazDHwa38NW/giphy.gif</a>)

Of course if those dots go away, I'm deleting the s*%t out of this post. Biggrin

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week
FoilDood wrote:

hmmm. Odd nuance to the NWS modeling. I see dots if the point is set at g'ville but not if set at the lake. Is it just me? Shok
I'm planning for Wednesday afternoon. Gradient map looks pretty good.

I don't think the resolution of these kinds of forecasts is anywhere near accurate enough to distinguish between G-ville and some place in the middle of the lake. I think they can tell you something about the difference between the KGVL, KPDK, and KRYY locations because those are all observation points with (we hope) quality data and a long history. Beyond that it is just interpolation.

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

description of models and resolutions
https://www.windy.com/multimodel/34.298/-83.824?33.257,-83.824,7,m:eCkadPs

I've seen conflicting numbers about the current resolution of GFS. wikipedia lists the short term resolution at 13 km

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I'm only seeing a wind map though I did find the Wiki article if that's what you meant. I'm not saying they can't show different forecasts for the lake and for KGVL - just that the points between observing stations are likely to be less reliable. Iwindsurf does have a forecast the the dam and it never seems to differ much from KGVL. We often much different wind at the South and West side of the lake (Tidwell or MAP for ex) than is reported from KGVL, particularly on morning easterlies. We also often see things like the "dome effect" at the lake, that don't show up in models or at the airport itself. Next spring we should look at the forecasts on the lake and see what they are showing on one hot air/cold water days and see if the model is picking up the Dome effect.

Anyway - all of this discussion has caused the model to kill the dots anyway..... Sorry 2

BTW - I learned something from all this. My forecast is really for Flowery Branch. Probably I put in Gene's zip code and then bookmarked it....I can't seem to move the little green box though.

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

This is what you should have seen. The newest models resolve down to 5-9 km which is enough that Van Pugh and KGVL will be different points. Beyond that, it's either interpolation or, in the case of iwindsurf/windalert, those "virtual" stations which, imho, are pretty worthless.

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I can only believe that the Van Pugh part of their forecast has been biased by our complaints about the wind at the lake all these years. They have probably put in a dummy variable* called NODOTSATVP into their spectral analysis.

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dummy_variable_(statistics)

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

1 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Tomorrow, Thur?
Dot's appeared this morning and looks a bit drier.

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I'm not seeing any dots now. Somebody eat them?

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

They were there last look. Of course, the full version on the NWS web site shows dots coincide with a spike in rain probability. Windmapper was showing a lower chance of rain when I looked this morning.

0 Like
bpw's picture
bpw
Online
Joined: 12/23/2003 - 23:07
Posts: 2319
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Dots gone - hopes dashed. The Atlanta doldrums continue on.

Barrett

0 Like
TVAW
Online
Joined: 04/19/2016 - 18:03
Posts: 357
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I will be finding my way to Old Fed or Van Pugh tomorrow evening around 6. With or without dots

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

And yet someone foiled (albeit briefly) this afternoon. Short session at LLSC hoping Chris would beat the rain. He didn't but after bobbing around for half an hour I did get in about 15-20 min of foiling in before the rain started. It was actually fairly breezy earlier but I had grass that needed cutting before I could play.

Good maiden voyage of the recently acquired 7.7.

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Luck favors those who go out to the lake and bob around until it shows up.

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

2 Like
TVAW
Online
Joined: 04/19/2016 - 18:03
Posts: 357
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Live report from VP
Dry
Storm is over in Flowery branch
Light Breeze from W
Gusts, some strong from N/NW
Going to wait before I rig

Edit
Wind has changed direction ( now SW ) going to drive over to Old Fed. Starting to get late...probably will not rig.
Maybe it will blow Saturday AM and we can get on the water.

0 Like
webguy's picture
webguy
Offline
Joined: 12/31/2000 - 22:01
Posts: 8403
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Looks like you might get to thread the needle. It hammered here in the ATL this afternoon. Stay safe and have fun.

0 Like
TVAW
Online
Joined: 04/19/2016 - 18:03
Posts: 357
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I am going to go to Old Federal Saturday morning 9ish.
No, I don't see anything in the forecast, but I going anyhow.

0 Like
gene_mathis's picture
gene_mathis
Offline
Joined: 05/17/2002 - 05:00
Posts: 1815
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

I'm going to Old Fed this morning also, around 10ish, bringing the laser to try to figure out how to launch and rig it and how to get to the windline with the high water level. Randy is supposed to be there to assist and advise.

Gene

Gene Mathis

0 Like
TVAW
Online
Joined: 04/19/2016 - 18:03
Posts: 357
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Live report from OF
Decent wind, even an occasional whitecap

Follow up:
That was a good way to spend the morning Smile

0 Like
FoilDodo's picture
FoilDodo
Offline
Joined: 03/19/2008 - 23:50
Posts: 1781
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Debi, I, Eric and Servane windsported our 2 Hobies around from LLSC but didn’t see any of yous out at OF. Good wind, seemed like enough occasionally for foiling. Weird rogue Tstorm came out of the NNE on a WSW day as we were taking out.

Shok

1 Like
gene_mathis's picture
gene_mathis
Offline
Joined: 05/17/2002 - 05:00
Posts: 1815
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Randy and I did mess with the Laser -

Quote:

Follow up:
That was a good way to spend the morning

Gene

Gene Mathis

0 Like
Randy's picture
Randy
Offline
Joined: 05/05/2002 - 10:38
Posts: 2961
Re: I'm sensing dots next week

Public Service Announcement: In case anyone is thinking of leaving for the lake now. It appears to have fallen off the radar screen.

Welcome to Atlanta, where windsport dreams come true.

0 Like

Pages