I hate days like this with such a huge range between gusts and lulls (way over 100000%). What do you rig for - gusts or lulls? Anyway - no one tell Langdon about this - he'll be knocking old ladies off their Paddle Boards again with his wake.
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What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
Perhaps I was misunderstood? I was speaking of next Tues/Wed. Unless your seer is capable of taking pictures of next Tues in which case ask her to focus on the Lottery numbers.
hunch = a 90% chance I'm wrong but I'm hoping beyond hope
I will not have the opportunity to tip SUPers this week so therefore the wind will blow probably starting around 10 on Monday and blow for at least 2 hours a day until my obligation ends... this prediction has been verified by my Magic 8 ball as well.
At a minimum there should be enough wind for Foildudes new Cat or perhaps a cruise with Gene's Laser.
hmmm. Odd nuance to the NWS modeling. I see dots if the point is set at g'ville but not if set at the lake. Is it just me?
I'm planning for Wednesday afternoon. Gradient map looks pretty good.
hmmm. Odd nuance to the NWS modeling. I see dots if the point is set at g'ville but not if set at the lake. Is it just me?
I'm planning for Wednesday afternoon. Gradient map looks pretty good.
I don't think the resolution of these kinds of forecasts is anywhere near accurate enough to distinguish between G-ville and some place in the middle of the lake. I think they can tell you something about the difference between the KGVL, KPDK, and KRYY locations because those are all observation points with (we hope) quality data and a long history. Beyond that it is just interpolation.
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What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
I'm only seeing a wind map though I did find the Wiki article if that's what you meant. I'm not saying they can't show different forecasts for the lake and for KGVL - just that the points between observing stations are likely to be less reliable. Iwindsurf does have a forecast the the dam and it never seems to differ much from KGVL. We often much different wind at the South and West side of the lake (Tidwell or MAP for ex) than is reported from KGVL, particularly on morning easterlies. We also often see things like the "dome effect" at the lake, that don't show up in models or at the airport itself. Next spring we should look at the forecasts on the lake and see what they are showing on one hot air/cold water days and see if the model is picking up the Dome effect.
Anyway - all of this discussion has caused the model to kill the dots anyway.....
BTW - I learned something from all this. My forecast is really for Flowery Branch. Probably I put in Gene's zip code and then bookmarked it....I can't seem to move the little green box though.
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What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
This is what you should have seen. The newest models resolve down to 5-9 km which is enough that Van Pugh and KGVL will be different points. Beyond that, it's either interpolation or, in the case of iwindsurf/windalert, those "virtual" stations which, imho, are pretty worthless.
I can only believe that the Van Pugh part of their forecast has been biased by our complaints about the wind at the lake all these years. They have probably put in a dummy variable* called NODOTSATVP into their spectral analysis.
They were there last look. Of course, the full version on the NWS web site shows dots coincide with a spike in rain probability. Windmapper was showing a lower chance of rain when I looked this morning.
Not seein’ it
Look again (btw, did you forget to pay the lady?)
Oh here it is
Wind 0, g 1
I hate days like this with such a huge range between gusts and lulls (way over 100000%). What do you rig for - gusts or lulls? Anyway - no one tell Langdon about this - he'll be knocking old ladies off their Paddle Boards again with his wake.
What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
Perhaps I was misunderstood? I was speaking of next Tues/Wed. Unless your seer is capable of taking pictures of next Tues in which case ask her to focus on the Lottery numbers.
hunch = a 90% chance I'm wrong but I'm hoping beyond hope
I will not have the opportunity to tip SUPers this week so therefore the wind will blow probably starting around 10 on Monday and blow for at least 2 hours a day until my obligation ends... this prediction has been verified by my Magic 8 ball as well.
At a minimum there should be enough wind for Foildudes new Cat or perhaps a cruise with Gene's Laser.
Golf anyone?
Alan
Dots anyone? Webguy must be getting inside info from NOAA.
What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
hmmm. Odd nuance to the NWS modeling. I see dots if the point is set at g'ville but not if set at the lake. Is it just me?
I'm planning for Wednesday afternoon. Gradient map looks pretty good.
Of course if those dots go away, I'm deleting the s*%t out of this post.
I don't think the resolution of these kinds of forecasts is anywhere near accurate enough to distinguish between G-ville and some place in the middle of the lake. I think they can tell you something about the difference between the KGVL, KPDK, and KRYY locations because those are all observation points with (we hope) quality data and a long history. Beyond that it is just interpolation.
What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
description of models and resolutions
https://www.windy.com/multimodel/34.298/-83.824?33.257,-83.824,7,m:eCkadPs
I've seen conflicting numbers about the current resolution of GFS. wikipedia lists the short term resolution at 13 km
I'm only seeing a wind map though I did find the Wiki article if that's what you meant. I'm not saying they can't show different forecasts for the lake and for KGVL - just that the points between observing stations are likely to be less reliable. Iwindsurf does have a forecast the the dam and it never seems to differ much from KGVL. We often much different wind at the South and West side of the lake (Tidwell or MAP for ex) than is reported from KGVL, particularly on morning easterlies. We also often see things like the "dome effect" at the lake, that don't show up in models or at the airport itself. Next spring we should look at the forecasts on the lake and see what they are showing on one hot air/cold water days and see if the model is picking up the Dome effect.
Anyway - all of this discussion has caused the model to kill the dots anyway.....
BTW - I learned something from all this. My forecast is really for Flowery Branch. Probably I put in Gene's zip code and then bookmarked it....I can't seem to move the little green box though.
What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
This is what you should have seen. The newest models resolve down to 5-9 km which is enough that Van Pugh and KGVL will be different points. Beyond that, it's either interpolation or, in the case of iwindsurf/windalert, those "virtual" stations which, imho, are pretty worthless.
I can only believe that the Van Pugh part of their forecast has been biased by our complaints about the wind at the lake all these years. They have probably put in a dummy variable* called NODOTSATVP into their spectral analysis.
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dummy_variable_(statistics)
What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
Tomorrow, Thur?
Dot's appeared this morning and looks a bit drier.
I'm not seeing any dots now. Somebody eat them?
What happens in a black hole stays in a black hole.
They were there last look. Of course, the full version on the NWS web site shows dots coincide with a spike in rain probability. Windmapper was showing a lower chance of rain when I looked this morning.
Dots gone - hopes dashed. The Atlanta doldrums continue on.
Barrett
I will be finding my way to Old Fed or Van Pugh tomorrow evening around 6. With or without dots
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